Sunday, August 06, 2006

The Ancient Future of the Near East

Creationism dates the genesis of the world as we know it at 4004 BC. The first man and woman were said to have lived in a garden of Eden located somewhere between the mighty Nile and Euphrates rivers. A cursory review of the histories (Old Testament, Akkadian, Sumerian, Mesopotamian, Egyptian etc. etc.) available from that period onward show that conflict was a way of life. Whether it be the bloody story of Cane and Abel or the necessity of the code of Hammurabi humanity has constantly been unsettled in that region. How could it not be so?
The Near East or the Middle East as it is now called, has for millennia greatly influenced world culture and events. Whether it be the library of Alexandria, the gardens of Babylon or more recently the oil riches of the Arabian peninsula, there is no doubt that control of the region is a great cultural and material prize.
No wonder then that the contemporary politics of the region are so explosive and involve such myriad and disparate players.
It is likely to remain that way for many years to come.
But will Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Afghanistan, & Syria lead to World War III? How likely is America to pull out?
Observing Joe Lieberman might help us to best answer those questions.
If Lieberman is willing to lose his senate seat for the sake of the war it is unlikely America has any intentions of drawing down it's forces anyime soon. In fact it is likely that the current administration will only expand the military presence in the region.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Granted, the rise of violence in the Middle East is troublesome, but what are the other options? How do you pacify a region where the inhabitants are sworn enemies? How do you negotiate a truce with a foe that has no leadership? Can we really pull back and wait for the mess to sort itself out?

theBlackEconomist said...

Good questions. I am sure you know that there are no easy answers to them.
My personal opinion is that the hatred is so extreme that there will be no Nelson Mandela's or MLK's to bring peace to the region. It will take a Christlike or Buddhha figure. In short the region will have to once again spiritually evolve before it will know peace.
Metaphysics aside, demographics is the driving factor. Israeli bithrates are going down and palestine birthrates continue to go up. As one Israeli commentaor put it, "They will march on Tel Aviv peacefully, without bloodshed, and demand one man, one vote, which we can never allow to happen because it will mean our destruction."
So as pessimisstic as it may seem I see no overall end to the violence, only brief respites from armed conflict as we have seen in the past.
On the other hand Israel can dissolve itself or give back more land. Both of which are unlikely to happen.
Conversley the Palestinians could forfeit claim to their ancestral lands, again unlikely.
Religion and history it seems are wroking very much against any form of peace (as third parties would define it).

Anonymous said...

Actually, I'm glad you brought up the metaphysical / spiritual element to this. I've been reading a book, History of God, which is an analysis of the orgin of our major monotheistic faiths. It continues to amaze me how spirituality can become so intertwined with ethnic politics -- whether it's the justification of genocide, slavery, or terrorism and war -- and yet, its practitioners can be so blind. I do worry that this particular strain of Islam has avoided evolution and as a result, sets us all on a collision course.